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Oil Price Recovery Widens Trade Surplus

Source: www.export-egypt.com 11/14/2015, Location: Middle East

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Kuwait's trade surplus widened for the first time in three quarters in 2015, thanks to a temporary recovery in oil prices.

The surplus expanded to KD 2.4 billion (USD 7.9 billion) in the second quarter of 2015 .

However, it still remains comparatively low.

The pickup was mainly due to a rise in oil revenues, given that oil prices improved slightly in 2015 and import growth slowed, said the report released by the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK).

Oil export revenues edged higher from KD 3.6 billion in 2015 to KD 4.3 billion in 2015.

The international oil price benchmark, Brent, rose from an average of USD 54 per barrel in 2015 to USD 62 per barrel in 2015, which in turn led oil revenues higher, it said.

In spite of the marginal rise, revenues were still down by 41 percent year-on-year (y/y). With oil prices hitting new lows in 2015 and staying there, oil revenues are expected to come in lower in the coming quarters.

Brent averaged USD 50 in 2015, the report indicated. Non-oil export growth saw some improvement, but continued to contract in 2015, declining by 7% y/y.

Non-oil export growth was propped up by a strong rebound in ethylene prices, but a stronger Kuwaiti dinar against most major currencies (with the exception of the US dollar) kept any significant gains at bay, it added.

Growth in non-oil exports is poised to remain in decline in the near-to-medium term, against a backdrop of a stronger dinar and weaker ethylene prices in 2015, the NBK's report said. Import growth held strong at 9.7 percent y/y in 2015 and climbed to another record high of KD 2.4 billion. Growth in imports has remained buoyant for a year now, mainly due to robust gains in capital goods imports, it added.

Capital goods imports grew by a strong 17.4 percent y/y in 2015.

The demand for capital goods has been on the rise this year, on the back of a pickup in spending on capital projects, the report noted.

An ongoing recovery in the demand for transport and consumer goods imports, (due in part to the stronger Kuwait dinar) has also propped up overall import growth of late, it concluded.



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